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The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Validation of Landslide Susceptibility Maps; Examples and Applications from a Case Study in Northern Spain 总被引:9,自引:3,他引:9
Remondo Juan González Alberto De Terán José Ramón Díaz Cendrero Antonio Fabbri Andrea Chung Chang-Jo F. 《Natural Hazards》2003,30(3):437-449
A procedure for validating landslide susceptibility maps wasapplied in a study area in northern Spain and the results obtained compared. Validationwas used to carry out sensitivity analysis for individual variables and combinationsof variables. The validity of different map-making methods was tested, as well as theutility of different types of Favourability Functions. The results obtained show thatvalidation is essential to determine the predictive value of susceptibility maps. Italso helps to better select the most suitable function and significant variables, thus improving the efficiency of the mapping process. Validation based on a temporal strategy makes it possible to derive hazard maps from susceptibility maps. 相似文献
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浅层地下水氟的溶解/沉淀作用的定量研究 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
以河北邢台山前平原浅层高氟地下水为例,根据氟的化学热力学分析,确定了控制浅层地下水中氟迁移和富集的固相沉淀物,以及不同化学类型的浅层地下水中含氟固相沉淀物的溶解/沉淀条件;利用浅层地下水化学平衡反应模型和PHREEQE软件,确定了氟化的稳定区域,计算了氟化钙的饱和指数.研究结果表明,在浅层高氟地下水的整个形成过程中,都表现为氟由固相转入水相的趋势,有利于氟的迁移和富集 相似文献
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采用“上阻、中栏、下堵”的立体堵水方法,封堵了义马新安煤矿1995年11月5日发生的特大型(4257m3/h)奥灰突水通道,解放被淹矿井,堵水效果良好。 相似文献
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南黄海潮成辐射砂脊群的面积约为20000km2,以160° 的角度从弓京港向海展开。它与以弓京港为顶点的辐聚辐散潮流场相伴而生。60余个钻孔揭示,毗邻海区辐射砂脊体系的江苏沿岸平原上存在一个面积约3000 km2潮成砂区,其顶点位于东台,同样呈扇形以130°的角度向东展开。在潮成砂区内潮成砂质沉积单元位于冰后期海侵型砂坝-湖沉积层之上,二者之间具明显的冲刷面。砂坝-湖沉积层位于晚更新世基底硬粘土层之上,二者之间有较长的沉积间断。潮成砂沉积层上覆潮坪沉积层,二者呈渐变关系。以潮成砂层底部的侵蚀面为界,其下为海侵序列,其上为海退序列。古潮流的研究揭示,潮成砂区内同样存在辐聚辐散的古潮流场,其顶点位于东台附近。由此推断,沿海平原的潮成砂区内也是辐射状潮成砂脊体系,它形成于全新世海退时期。由于长江和黄河三角洲的前展,以东台为顶点的潮成砂脊体系逐渐暴露成陆。陆上和海域潮成辐射砂脊群形成于相同的潮汐动力环境,但处在不同的发育阶段,前者形成于全新世中期,后者发育于全新世晚期。矿物分析揭示,陆上和海区的潮成辐射砂脊体系主要由长江和黄河沉积物组成,其中长江沉积物由南向北运移,且时间较早;黄河沉积物由北向南运移,时间较迟,这种泥沙的运移趋势一直延续至今。随着海平面上升趋于减缓,长江三角洲增长,江苏海岸线向外推进,苏北潮成砂区逐渐出露成陆。1128年黄河由苏北入海,大量的黄河沉积物的加入,加快了本区海岸线的推进速度。潮成辐射砂脊体系与辐聚辐散的潮流场相伴而生,全新世最大海侵以来,辐聚辐散的潮流场的位置曾经历三次变化,第一次以长江古河口湾为顶点,第二次位于现今陆上潮成砂区,第三次位于以弓京港为顶点的现代海域,代表了潮成辐射砂脊体系发育的三个阶段。只是长江古河口湾的潮成辐射砂脊体系由于河流的巨大改造作用,可能未很好保存,至今未发现典型的辐射砂脊体系。 相似文献
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新疆博格达山分段及深浅构造转换关系 总被引:15,自引:1,他引:15
研究表明 ,天山及邻区自中生代以来一直处于热衰减状态 ,博格达山新生代再造山具有“冷隆升”性 ,盆山边界断裂多限于上地壳内 ,而非直通中地壳低速体甚至上地幔的“深大断裂”。造山带内的韧性剪切带是在古生代形成的 ,而不是再造山期的断裂 ,它对造山带隆升及盆山耦合无贡献 ,博格达山的隆升为复式背斜构造所支持。博格达山与准东的关系为背斜北翼与盆地平缓基底构成的挠曲构造 ,而不是被深大断裂分隔的断块。博格达山具有独特鲜明的分段性 ,造山带的两个弧形构造与新生代再生前陆盆地构成独特的“斜方对称”分布样式。以板条观点为指导 ,从盆山单元的平面配置关系和深浅构造转换关系入手 ,探讨了博格达山板内造山阶段的几何学和运动学分段性的成因 ,构建了盆山耦合模式 相似文献
39.
以k-ε紊流模型为基础,针对浅水环境垂向射流的水面会有明显突起情况,采用VOF(Volume of Fluid)方法追踪自由面,建立了适合浅水环境垂向平面紊动射流的二维数学模型.对不同入射速度、水深、入射口宽度组合进行了大量的数值模拟实验,对整个流场的分布作了分析,发现自由面的分布特点和速度矢量场的分布特点相对应;中轴线附近的自由面隆起具有自相似性,文中给出了拟合表达式;由于水面的阻滞,中轴线上垂向速度的衰减较自由射流快,衰减规律随水深和射流宽度而异. 相似文献
40.